Corona - Is anybody thinking in the right direction?
By Rohit Aarrya on 8th April 2020
It is surprising; or rather shocking that there is no logical thinking about Corona. I can understand that being cautious about infections, especially the contagious, is important; rather critical. The experts (probably including those our Hon. PM speaks with) on Tv, doctors, and many eminent people have been painting a picture as if we will get infected to a “no cure” decease even if we just step out of the house. This fear mongering has led to India being the first country; and probably still the only to have a total imposed lockdown. Thinking practically without any bias, Corona Virus actually does not require the over reactions for following reasons.
- As of today (almost 2 months since it is known as a huge risk) Corona has infected just about 6000; less than 0.0003% of our population.
- Just 170 have turned fatal till date. From these some were said to have other ailments and many were reported to be senior citizens. It is known that natural immunity decreases with age. There is no certainty that these 114 unfortunate patients succumbed only because of Corona. Even then 170 is about 3% from the infected. This fatality rate is common with many known infections and deceases.
- The outburst in western countries is much rapid than in India because immunity in Indians is comparatively higher than others for various reasons. Secondly it may also be possible that the virus isn’t able to spread as much as it is not surviving the heat and pollution in India.
What “experts” say; and why we need to discount their views.
- The number of infections will rise exponentially; and so will fatalities. Agreed that this is a serious concern. However the extent projected is based on assumptions. The worst assumption seems to be that there will be no cure or vaccine. The fact that number of infected patients cured is 3 times the number of deaths proves that there is a cure for this infection. If a proper study of the treatment on cured patients is done, we may come up with medication and an established good treatment faster than expected. This will also lead to a vaccine for prevention of getting infected sooner than expected.
- It will take months to create a vaccine. This is true if all protocols are to be followed. Can’t the Governments give exemptions on certain protocols to expedite approvals / temporary approvals? It may sound cruel but testing may also be done on certain type patients after achieving a certain stage of confidence. It is anyway being said that treatments and medications are happening on trial error basis. Secondly, there is a possibility that some medication and treatment similar to some other infection / decease may work for Corona virus also. HCQ being almost accepted as working.
- Low numbers are due to lock down is a common belief being talked about by people and few “experts”. Lockdown will take an effect, however the low count as of now cannot be attributed entirely to it as yet. Any virus entering human body will first need to kill immunity of the body before symptoms are seen; which may take up to a few days in many cases. (I guess this is the reason for recommending 14 days quarantine) We are about 2 weeks of lockdown; so the low number can be attributed to inbuilt immunity of Indians or the voluntary social distancing followed by many Indians since before even the appeal by Hon. PM and the imposed lockdown.
- Many argue that India has low number of infections because we have not tested as much required. This does sound to be logically true, and needs to be worked out. I do not think the practice of sample testing being followed is sensible.
As of today India is one of the least affected countries with less than 0.0005% of population infected. So why the extreme measures of a total lock down of India? And why are many people agreeing to this extreme measure being taken?
Basically we have succumbed to the fear that got created (I cannot be sure if this fear creation is part of any conspiracy as yet). For people; especially the retired, salaried (who will continue getting salaries as per Govt directive) lockdown exempted establishments, online module business owners etc this will be like compulsory Privilege Leave. The only difference being they need to sit tight at one location. Delayed examinations or direct promotion to the next class will bring a cheer to most students. None of these will compare adverse effect of lockdown with its cost as they are not paying the price. Mostly these are the people who endorse a lockdown with an argument like “Life is more important than economy”. Many endorse it out of the fear created; and many simply because they get overwhelmed by Hon. PMs decision.
In my next blog – The price we are paying for lockdown and reasons this lockdown idea will not have been as effective. I will also follow with another blog about what I think might have made Hon. PM take his second draconian decision.
I welcome anybody to put forth their views. We will upload your views on this blog. We can also do a healthy discussion on any social media and invite many more people to participate.
About writer - Rohit Aarrya is an ex Banker now involved in various projects. The 2013 Project Let’s Change report and proposal given to Gujarat Govt in December 2013 may have inspired the attention toward public support for a serious cleanliness drive. This was followed up by Hon. PM himself since February 2014 which brought one of the highest regards for him before 2014 general elections. Coincidentally in January 2019,just before general elections Hon. PM proposed reservations for EWS; a suggestion that was being propagated in Rohit Aarrya’s project “Swabhimaan” since August 2018.
Disclaimer – These views are based on my logic. You may think my views in any way as per your thinking. It is good to express honest opinions for betterment; however very few have the courage to do so as mostly people prefer to be politically correct. Be honest with at least yourself whether you agree or disagree to my view. My intention will always be for the good. I do not intend to disrespect anybody. You can reach me on email firstname.lastname@example.org